Over at Teekay’s

Bosnian lawmakers tonight delivered a stunning blow to the country’s main parties by failing to endorse constitutional amendments by the required two-thirds majority. 26 deputies voted in favor, 16 against, mostly the now dominant HDZ splinter group “HDZ 1990″ but also deputies from the Bosniak (Bosnian Muslim) Party for BiH and apparently at least one member of the Bosniak SDA.

It will be interesting to see what course those who rejected the amendments because they didn’t go far enough will now recommend. If modest reform cannot happen, why would radical reform fare any better?

It will also be interesting to see the reaction of those who claim Bosnia’s political establishment is fully capable of governing the country without outside pressure. This appeared hardly like a demonstration of “local ownership,” at least not in any meaningful way.

April 25th was supposed to be an historic day for Bosnia: for the first time, the country’s constitution, which it had acquired through the Dayton peace agreement, was to be overhauled. (The current constitution was drafted in English, and no one ever bothered to produce an official translation into Bosnian.)

Some, like the editors of Transitions Online, argue believe that the proposed amendments, though “modest to the point of being uninspiring,” are a “positive development” and that “it is hard to come up with any legitimate reason why anyone should be opposed.” But opposition was strong enough for the Bosniak (Bosnian Muslim) Party of Democratic Action to propose, in the wee hours of this morning, to adjourn the session (which had lasted from 10am to 1:40am) until later today so they can try to get sufficient support.

What went wrong?

The people who initiated the process of constitutional amendments, based at the U.S. Institute of Peace in Washington, have been criticized for expending valuable political capital on an issue that ultimately just isn’t that serious. Indeed, the Dayton constitution did not create the division of Bosnia — Bosnians did — nor would it necessarily have to be a brake on development, as the creation of several new ministries and the delegation of authority from the entities to the central government have shown in the past. There’s some truth to the accusation, then, but I would still maintain that it was worth trying.

However, should the demagogues, led by Haris Silajdzic, prevail and the amendments be voted down, this would send a very bad signal indeed, not least to the EU which is worried that Bosnia’s cumbersome structures of governance can simply not deal with the demands of EU integration. Silajdzic opposes the amendments because they don’t go far enough and abolish the entity structure (read: Republika Srpska). By voting no, he will ensure that no change, as modest as it may be, will take place for years to come.

Expect the cajoling and bribing to continue through the day. A vote should take place sometime this evening.

…which means even lighter posting than during Tuscan hilltop town alert #14, Rolling Umbrian hills alert #4, or Dramatic Amalfi coast sight ahead alert #2. Expect something approaching “normal” posting to resume around April 18, jetlag permitting.

Positano (Amalfi coast)

Originally uploaded by teekay.

I uploaded a few pics from last weekend’s trip to Napoli and Positano to Flickr. Head over there to check them out.

I pointed out in a piece on TCSDaily (formerly TechCentralStation) last Friday that the EU needed to stay tough with Serbia on the war crimes issue or else it would lose the little respect it still had:

It would be a shame if the EU, for the umpteenth time, fell for the tired old threat — rolled out with great gusto by Draskovic himself — that the Radicals would take over if the government were pushed too hard on the war crimes issue. Pushing is needed, and if a fall follows, perhaps it will finally drive home the simple truth so many Europeans don’t want to see: as long as Kostunica and his allies remain in power, the old dictator will not really have been buried.

Imagine my dismay when I read in the Trib, over a lovely breakfast at the Bar Internazionale in Positano Sunday, the following:

The European Union on Friday extended a deadline by one month - until April 30 - for Serbia to hand over the war crimes fugitive General Ratko Mladic to the United Nations war crimes tribunal in The Hague after the UN’s chief war crimes prosecutor told EU officials that Belgrade was making progress in hunting him down.
International Herald Tribune, 1 April 2006

There are times when it is better to be far away from everything (and I can recommend Positano for that purpose, at least before the tourist madness sets in shortly before Easter). It certainly helped my blood pressure.